2012 Home Run Derby Crystal Ball

Being a big baseball fan, the Home Run Derby is always a big night for me. Again, I'll be working but thanks to today's technology, I can DVR the contest and not miss a minute if I so choose.

There will be some familiar faces in the Kansas City Derby. Faces like Prince Fielder and Robinson Cano and there are new faces like the Pirates' Andrew McCutchen and the Angels' Mark Trumbo.

Here are the full lineups for tonight:

American League:

• (C) Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees, 20 HRs
• Mark Trumbo, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 22 HRs
• Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers, 15 HRs
• Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays, 27 HRs

National League:

• (C) Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers, 12 HRs in 36 games
• Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies, 17 HRs
• Carlos Beltran, OF, St. Louis Cardinals, 20 HRs
• Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates, 18 HRs

The American League fields two winners of the recent past. Fielder won it back in 2009 as a member of your Milwaukee Brewers and more recently Robinson Cano last year in Phoenix. The AL also has the most gaudy home run numbers. That's partially due to having guys hit in more homer friendly spots but mostly because they have more true power hitters than does the NL.

It's clear the NL is at a disadvantage but Andrew McCutchen is white hot and Carlos Beltran has been as good as anybody in 2012.

In case you don't know how the derby works, I'll give you a short break down on the rules:

• Any swing that isn't a home run is an out. Each hitter gets ten outs.
• The top four hitters with the most home runs advance to the second round
• The two hitters in the championship round have a clean slate and the most HRs in that round wins.

That's basically it for rules unless you feel you need to know about the ball after a hitter gets his ninth out is the "golden ball" (a la the NBA 3 Point shootout) which, if it's hit out of the yard will get extra money donated to that player's charity.

Here's who I like to get out of the first round:

I like Bautista to win the 2012 HR Derby.

Robinson Cano, Prince Fielder, Jose Bautista and Andrew McCutchen.

You can't count out two past winners, that's why I'm liking Cano and Fielder to at least get past the first round. Jose Bautista is a home run machine and it would really be a fluke if he has a rough go in the first round. McCutchen is a dark horse because he's a replacement and he hit two home runs yesterday in the Pirates' rout of the Giants.

Championship round:

Jose Bautista and Andrew McCutchen

At this point, Bautista and McCutchen are locked in and it should be a good finish.

Winner:

Jose Bautista

Bautista has 27 home runs during the regular season and can get white hot out of nowhere. The adjustments he's made in his swing have made him such a good power hitter. He'll put it on display tonight and grab headlines as he'll win the 2012 Derby and blow away the audience in Kansas City.

-Big Money